06. The Insider's Guide to Knowing If You're Ever on Trend
Enstyle's data-driven summer shopping, why Hermès dethroned LVMH, Temu's sudden US ad blackout + the new festival marketing playbook
Hello from the desert where it’s 90+ degrees already and I’m still wearing sweatshirts because I am v behind on some spring/summer closet updates. But that's all about to change today!
I’ve honestly been putting off any closet updates because it’s felt so overwhelming. I have a lot of travel coming up this summer: a stop in Scottsdale in May, maybe the Caribbean for a little summer kickoff, a trip to coastal Maine to visit my parents, a stretch in Vegas where I’ll essentially be under house arrest, and some time in Alaska at the end. And so I need whatever pieces I purchase to work across multiple vacas, vibes and be both parent and island approved (a tough feat). I know- it’s a hard life but someone has to live it.
So… I called in some backup.
Enter: Enstyle, a trend navigation platform for fashion brands and retailers that basically makes the product dev process less of a shot in the dark. They pull together media, market, and consumer insights to help creative teams make smarter decisions before things go into production so fashion brands can bridge the gap between what they produce and what consumers truly want, in real time, leading to more sustainable decisions for both their business and the planet. We love to see it!
The first time I met with the Enstyle team we yapped for over 2 hours (not surprising if you've ever been on a call with me) and I was blown away by how comprehensive their product is. I was immediately obsessed with how much data they’re pulling from AND how customizable the insights are depending on what kind of brand you are and what you’re trying to build. It’s smart, it’s visual, and if you geek out on trend forecasting the way I do, you’re going to love it.
To test it out, I sent over 10 items I’ve been circling for summer- think: red jelly flats, “old money” activewear (I can’t decide if I made that up or not?), and some wildcard pieces- and had the team run them through the platform. For anything that came back as trending down, I dropped in a better option that is trending, along with a poll so you can weigh in on what I should actually purchase.
BTW- They just launched their Substack so follow them and let them know all the insider insights you want to see! Seriously, they do it all!
Also in this week’s lineup:
Updates on the latest fashion tech debacle
The dethroning of LVMH by Hermès (teehee)
Breaking down the myths of Chinese Manufacturing Tok
Coachella brand data
And more more more!
So without further ado- let’s set the ~vibes~.
Slip into that Suzie Kondi velour tracksuit you impulse-bought during the Libra full moon (that's not what they meant by healing but I'm proud of you for trying anyway! Girl after my own heart), pour a chilled can of Lemon of Pink sparkling wine into your favorite Estelle colored glass (I'm partial to the lavender rn), and position yourself directly under that Dyson fan you justified as a "summer essential."
It's Thursday night, we're solving your entire summer wardrobe with actual data science, and I'm about to save you from three panic purchases at Reformation that (let’s be honest) you would've returned anyway.
Let's get into it, shall we?
CaaStle secured a $2.75M bridge loan this week from an existing investor affiliated with former director Scott Callon with potential for another $2.75M if they can agree on a budget for upcoming expenditures (if you’re not caught up on this story see here). While this gives them slight breathing room amid their catastrophic fraud scandal, the financing isn't about operational recovery—the board explicitly stated funds will be used for "considering strategic transactions and planning for a Chapter 11 process." The fact that an investor is still willing to extend capital signals belief that there's salvageable value in CaaStle's technology platform (totally understand) and relationships despite the scandal (I think they’re absolutely fucked lol). The critical question now: can any restructured version of CaaStle overcome the brand damage from a founder allegedly falsifying financials and leaving the company with massive losses? For partners like Vince, Banana Republic and Express (currently suing them over breach of contract and trademark infringement- they also can’t catch a break lately) who built significant customer offerings on CaaStle's technology, rebuilding trust with a restructured entity might be easier than starting from scratch with another provider. Either way, the rental business model itself isn't what failed here—it was execution and leadership.
Hermès has officially overtaken LVMH as the world's most valuable luxury company, with a market cap of €249 billion ($281 billion) compared to LVMH's €244 billion after LVMH shares plunged following disappointing Q1 results (plummeted 7.8% following a shocking 3% year-on-year decline in first-quarter sales after estimating a 2% gain). What makes this so deliciously ironic? It comes 15 years after Bernard Arnault attempted his infamous "stealth raid" to acquire Hermès (the ultimate luxury power move that Hermès families successfully fended off). The numbers tell the real story: LVMH reported 2024 sales of €84.7B and operating profit of €19.6B, while Hermès had just €15.2B in sales but €6.2B in operating profit – hello 40% profit margin. I could write an entire post dedicated to just how juicy of a story this is and if I find some time, I just might.
A flood of viral TikTok videos from Chinese factory workers claiming to produce goods for luxury brands has created the latest battlefield in the US-China trade war. These highly produced videos show purported factory floors where items "identical" to Lululemon leggings or Louis Vuitton bags are being made for a fraction of retail prices all while urging Americans to buy directly to avoid Trump's 145% tariffs (pls don’t). While some (almost all) videos are clearly counterfeit sellers trying to capitalize on confusion (Lululemon confirms only 3% of its production happens in mainland China), the phenomenon reveals consumers' growing awareness of the gap between production costs and luxury pricing (went down a rabbit hole of this tiktoker doing brand deep dives on this topic the other day and the tea is so good). The strategic implications are significant: luxury's famously opaque supply chains leave brands vulnerable to these narratives, as many do pre-assemble components in China before final assembly in Europe. As one finance expert noted in Newsweek, "What we're seeing isn't just a TikTok trend. It's economic warfare playing out on our phone screens." Makes an even greater case for the digital passport- need a sustainability girly to weigh in here!
Big data day over here! Temu has completely vanished from the US digital ad landscape, with its Google Shopping impression share plummeting from 19% to a flat 0% in less than two weeks as data from Tinuiti reveals a company in rapid retreat from the American market. This sudden advertising blackout—also reflected in zero sponsored TikTok videos and cratering social spend—signals a seismic shift in e-commerce strategy triggered by Trump's escalating tariffs on Chinese imports. What makes this particularly fascinating is how quickly Temu pulled the plug: they've fallen from consistently ranking in Apple's top 10 apps to #69, with app downloads dropping 62% in recent days according to SimilarWeb. The strategic implications for retail are enormous. Consider that Meta alone reportedly earned $7+ billion from Chinese advertisers in 2023, with Temu being one of their largest spenders. Woof.
This year's "clout Olympics" at Coachella reveals a recalibration in brand activation strategies as festival marketing evolves beyond its once-predictable ROI. The data (woohoo data day!) tells a compelling story: EMV for beauty and fashion brands declined from $52.63 million in 2024 to $40.8 million this year - a 22.5% drop that suggests some market saturation. Rhode emerged as the beauty winner with a smartly integrated strategy that leveraged existing relationships (via Kendall Jenner's 818 Outpost) rather than standalone activations, demonstrating how the most efficient festival marketing now requires ecosystem thinking rather than isolated brand presence. What's really worth noting is how smaller, more tactical investments outperformed bigger sponsorships - Kosas ranked second with targeted pink SUVs distributing sunscreen around Palm Springs, beating out festival sponsors Neutrogena, Sol de Janeiro, and Method. We’re seeing a strategic shift away from massive festival sponsorships toward more nimble, content-optimized experiences that prioritize social sharing over physical festival footprint (O/S ranked #3 and a majority was due to 1 sponsored video with Alix Earle- a fucking powerhouse). The broader implications? As "Coachella fatigue" continues (Google Trends data said it, not me!), the brands thriving are those that have evolved beyond the classic festival playbook to create multi-dimensional / purposeful activation strategies that work across platforms (not just for aesthetics), leverage existing partnerships (authenticity FTW), and reflect the fragmentation of festival aesthetics beyond the once-dominant boho vibe (did I mention authenticity FTW?).
Now for the fun part! As promised, I ran 10 summer wishlist items through Enstyle's trend platform, and the data doesn't lie. Here’s how the game works: I’ll post the item and its trend signals. If its on trend- vote yes or no on me purchasing. If it’s not on trend, I’ll post an item that is and you can vote on which piece you like better. Ready?
1 + 2: Navy Triangle Bikini from Ark Swimwear and Navy Tie-Side Bikini Bottom from Ark Swimwear
Big believer that summer is defined by a new bikini, but as mentioned, I needed something both Caribbean and family friendly- if such an item exists. I went for a classic:
Triangle Top
The verdict?: TRENDING DOWN ↓
Triangle bikini style growing last year (+46.29%) but forecast to decline (-7.33%)
Navy bikini still trending upward but slowing (+10.32%, forecast +6.72%)
What's trending instead: Petal tops & textured swimwear
Petal top bikinis showing strong growth (+18.62%, forecast +10.15%)
Shell/beaded bikinis exploding in popularity (+113.18%, forecast +78.52%)
Crochet knit styles gradually increasing (+2.57%, forecast +7.49%)
*Alternative choice: Bananhot Navy Petal Bikini Top
Side Tie Bikini Bottom
The verdict?: TRENDING DOWN ↓ (rough start, no?)
String tie side bikini slowing significantly (+29.24%, forecast +2.55%)
What's trending instead: More modest silhouettes
Bikini shorts rising steadily (+17.78%, forecast +12.61%)
Perfect balance between coverage and style for the parent-approved beach day
*Alternative choice: Tropic of C Swim Shorts
3. DISSH Knit Pants as a Coverup
I wasn’t feeling a beach coverup this year and all of my Pinterest saves were leaning towards a linen or open knit flowy pant. I LOVED the way these were styled on the Dissh site as an everyday outfit but thought they were so chic for a beach day (also they’re see-through so like???)
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
Textured finish absolutely soaring (whoever picked these has incredible taste) (+31.79%, forecast +20.64%)
Knit fabric maintaining growth (+13.97%)
Day-to-night versatility seeing major demand (+21.46%, forecast +10.89%)
Lounge sets still going strong (+19.86%, forecast +14.01%)
This piece works perfectly across my travel spectrum - casual enough for Maine mornings but elevated enough for evening Caribbean cocktails.
4. Ancient Greek Red Jelly Sandals
The jelly is peak inner-child healing and I think red is the perfect addition to this entire haul. I want these now!
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
Chunky flip flop style set to surge next year (-5.98% now, but +28.77% forecast)
Jelly flip flops currently peaking (+75.87%) but expected to decline (-12.67%)
Dark red maintaining consistent growth (+11.72%, forecast +8.89%)
The data suggests I should grab these now while the jelly trend is at its peak!
You always, I repeat, ALWAYS need a hot girl summer dress. There is always an occasion. Srsly- just make one up. Wear this while eating hotdogs out of the bougie hotdog holders I was just talking about a few weeks ago. I would think you were the coolest girl in the world and would 10/10 want to be friends. This screams Caribbean date night but I think would work for hot nights in Vegas too.
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
Sheer maxi dress showing exceptional strength (+36.20%, forecast +18.89%)
Semi-sheer styles consistently growing (+15.10%, forecast +6.43%)
Cutout details bouncing back strongly after decline (-43.90% last year to +19.02% forecast)
6. Gold Loewe Aviator Sunglasses
I died at these! Okay, I don’t know if they really fit the vibe of the rest of this haul but when I tell you these spoke right to my soul, oh my god! I had been eyeing a pair from Bottega for almost a year but no one does sunnies like Loewe. Are these obnoxious? Am I crazy? I think they’re one of the most beautiful things I’ve ever seen in my life.
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
Yellow gold surging (+28.13%, forecast +11.10%)
Aviator sunglasses maintaining steady growth (+17.95%)
I love how versatile a chunky pearl necklace is- it dresses up your everyday casual outfits, esp. when layered with tennis necklaces. However, it’s not looking good for me here. Charms are not my vibe so adding in this gorgina chunky gold necklace from Jennifer Fisher as the alternative and now I’m conflicted. What do you guys think?
The verdict?: TRENDING DOWN ↓
Pearls overall flat (-0.96%, forecast +1.01%)
Pearl chokers specifically declining (-8.97%)
What's trending instead: Personalized jewelry
Pearl charm necklaces showing explosive growth (+37.18%)
Chain necklaces continuing to rise (+7.71%)
Chunky jewelry broadly trending up (+34.94%, forecast +27.18%)
*Alternative choice: Jennifer Fisher Thin Knot Choker Necklace
A tried and true! Another piece I think you should always have in your closet because its so chic but also sun protection- hi. This hat is practically the definition of data-backed fashion decisions and I honestly never see this going out of style.
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
Cowboy hat style maintaining steady growth (+7.67%, forecast +9.86%)
Raffia material showing exceptional strength (+10.85%, forecast +84.20%!)
Raffia hats specifically outperforming (+29.78%)
This bag has been on my list for ages and I don’t know why I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. It is so fucking chic. It’s also sustainable, price point is incredible and has a great brand story and on and on and on. Bottom line is, I love it and I want it and the data gods were looking out for us with this one. And I think it helps tip the Loewe sunnies over the line.
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
White bag trend continuing strong (+19.03%, forecast +10.13%)
Gold hardware surging (+30.25%, forecast +10.22%)
Light cream color showing exceptional growth (+19.20%, forecast +11.68%)
Vegas is so unbearably hot in the summer that the only option is to be borderline naked and I’m determined to make that cute somehow. I love a matching set for when my ADD is flaring and I can’t choose anything to wear, plus how perf with the Amanu bag? The only concerning signal is the boxer style shorts (honestly, didn’t see that coming), but the two-piece trend is strong enough to override that concern. I feel like this works for all of my travel destinations too so WINS WINS AND MORE WINS!
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
Two-piece sets showing impressive growth (+42.11%, forecast +12.78%)
Stripes maintaining slight growth (+3.32%)
Boxer style shorts declining significantly (-36.10%, forecast -14.19%)
Ok I know I said 10 items but I needed these last few to round out the haul. I have become so resistant to wearing a heel over the last few years but I’m so into a minimal low heel with any outfit lately. The beading is slightly throwing me off so genuinely, what do you think? They’re so chic in the black color way but are these giving prom? Don’t lie to me! I fear I already know the answer.
The verdict?: TRENDING UP ↑
Short heels trending strongly (+22.96%, forecast +5.86%)
Beading details showing consistent growth (+13.04%)
Strappy heels expected to rebound (-7.56% now to +6.10% forecast)
Bonus trend alignment: Kitten heels are surging (+45.52%, forecast +16.06%)
12. Splits59 One-Piece Activewear
I felt like this was giving Meredith Blake and again, a romper is so easy to throw on when you don’t know what to wear (LBH, I’m wearing this more for work days at Urth than workouts). However, the data is against me here. There’s a sports bra of this same color block style and honestly I love it just as much so maybe that’s the vibe instead? Only linking the bra here because I’ll lose my mind if I buy another pair of black leggings.
The verdict?: TRENDING DOWN ↓
Romper style declining (-0.96%, forecast -11.22%)
Despite "old money" aesthetic trending up (+9.28%, forecast +12.01%)
However, color block is on fire (+897.38%, +602.99%)
What's trending instead: Activewear sets
Activewear sets showing massive growth (+59.49%, forecast +15.78%)
Lounge sets continuing to gain popularity (+19.86%, forecast +14.01%)
*Alternative choice: Monah Rigor Sports Bra
And that's a wrap on this data-driven retail therapy, truly the best of both worlds!
What I love most about using Enstyle's platform is seeing the actual numbers behind what's performing in the market versus just trusting algorithms to tell us what's trending (we’re all influenced by it, don’t act like you’re not). It's so fun to see what's actually having growth and what's predicted to decline – especially when it contradicts what we're all being fed in our feeds. Also such a good way to play with your style and make small tweaks out of your comfort zone - personal style is king but there's always room for growth!
If you're into trend forecasting (or just nosy bitch about what's coming next in fashion like me), definitely check out Enstyle’s Substack. Anyone can follow along and get those insider insights that usually stay locked behind industry doors.
If you've made it to the end of this data deep-dive, your poll votes are officially helping curate my summer wardrobe across multiple climates and social situations – which makes you somewhat responsible for how cute I look in vacation photos and if I ever post on IG again (the saga continues). I think that's the definition of friendship, right?
See you Monday!
LYLAS <3
xx Carly
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